Chris Goodall in his new book “WHAT WE NEED TO DO NOW For a Zero Carbon Future” decodes actions that must be taken for the UK to become a net zero emitter by 2050.
His key recommendations for the UK are:
Building a huge over-capacity of wind and solar
energy, storing the excess as hydrogen
Using hydrogen to fuel our trains, shipping,
boilers and heavy industry, while electrifying buses, trucks and cars
Farming – and eating – differently, encouraging
plant-based alternatives to meat, and paying farmers to plant and maintain
woodlands
Making fashion sustainable and aviation pay its
way, funding synthetic fuels and genuine offsets
Using technical solutions to capture CO2 from
the air, and biochar to lock carbon in soil
What are the measures that your country’s industry and
government are able to apply swiftly?
As promised, let’s deep dive into the major GHG emitters together. And we start with the great country – China. First in population, first in GDP PP, fourth in territory, second in the number of billionaires. The country that has a unique communist-capitalist blend, driving societal needs with liberal market tools.
China is responsible for roughly 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions. According to the Climate Watch, 80% of its emissions come from: electricity/heat generation (42%), construction (22%), industry (9%), transportation (7%).
Under the 2015 Paris Climate Deal, China pledged to become the net zero emitter by 2060. According to the experts, this bold move would mean a total transformation of the Chinese society. What are the obvious steps and implications? Let’s look at the key polluting sectors.
1. Energy
China must shift from coal to renewable sources of energy. Today its share of renewables is already 26%, which is the largest in the world in both the absolute and proportional values. The recent announcement of the controversial Yarlung Tsangpo 60GW dam project would theoretically add 2% to renewables (if we dare to consider melting glacier as a renewable source). That, however, is proven to be a challenge, as currently there are 184 (!) coal power plants being built, with nominal capacity of total 246GW (about the size of all Chinese solar power plants).
Zhang Xiliang, a climate modeller at Tsinghua University in Beijing suggests that not only China should retire coal power plants by 2060, but also ramp-up renewable electricity generation over the next 40 years, including a 16-fold increase in solar and a 9-fold increase in wind. To replace coal-fired power generation, nuclear power would need to increase sixfold, and hydroelectricity to double. A truly gigantic challenge for a gigantic nation.
2. Construction
Staggering half of all the world’s new buildings are raised in China. There are 3,400 cement companies in China, producing 2,4bln tons of cement. That is 60% of all cement produced in the world.
In the article “Cement and Carbon Emissions” by Laurent Barcelo, John Kline, Gunther Walenta and Ellis Gartner, authors argue that “It has been shown that the cement industry is a major producer of CO2, accounting for some 5 – 7% of man-made CO2 emissions. This is more related to the prevalence of concrete as the global construction material rather than the intrinsic level of embodied CO2 of concrete and cement. In cement manufacture, the CO2 comes from both a combination of process related emissions from the decarbonation of limestone, as well as energy related emissions from fuel combustion. The cement industry has traditionally relied on three main levers to reduce CO2 emissions; energy efficiency, alternative fuels and biomass, and clinker substitution. More can be done in each of these areas, but even at their full potential, their combined effect is not sufficient to meet the CSI and IEA cement industry targets. Another 50% reduction in CO2 emissions will still be required. Carbon capture and sequestration has not been fully proven, but it appears that it would add a significant cost to cement manufacture and therefore construction in general. Therefore additional innovation is required in cement formulation“.
Chinese Cement Association reports that the government has been pushing manufacturers to follow an example of Anhui Conch plant (photo below), that has retrofitted its clinkers to capture and store about 50,000 tons of emitted CO2.
Another opportunity Chinese cement companies explore in order to offset costly investment is a waste-to-energy model.
3. Industrial Emissions
Being world’s workshop is energy intensive. Traditionally, Chinese government has been subsidizing exporters for the sake of export revenue growth. This policy has been changing under the US pressure and since 2016 is officially abandoned. In reality, it has been transformed into a series of indirect “green” industrial subsidies.
Jihyun Selena Lee, Energy Efficiency Policy Analyst at the International Energy Agency reports: “During 2016‑19, China’s green bond market quadrupled to nearly USD 120 billion, making it the world’s second-largest. Dedicated government guidance and support for green bonds boosts energy efficiency and renewable energy projects, catalysing the clean-energy transition. Among the six green-bond categories, 12% of all bonds issued in 2016-19 pertained to energy-saving, claiming third place behind clean transportation (25%) and clean energy (36%). In practice, the energy efficiency share exceeds 12%, as resource conservation and recycling and other categories also incorporate numerous energy efficiency measures”.
4. Transportation
China is both the largest manufacturer and buyer of electric vehicles in the world, accounting for more than half of all electric cars made and sold (see chart below). China also makes 99% of the world’s electric buses.
Without any doubt, China has been leading the electric revolution banning motorcycles in 2016, allowing only electrical vehicles registrations in the biggest cities and finally pledging to ban all petrol vehicles as of 2035. It uses its rivers and builds railroads with unprecedented speed to reduce transport cost and emissions.
Conclusion:
China is moving fast from the global workshop to the global powerhouse. Its centralization allows for concrete and undisputable steps, be it a total ban of waste import or investment in the Road and Belt Initiative. China will continue its unprecedented transformation and their 2060 carbon neutrality pledge supported by the newest technological innovations seems achievable.
This sets the bar very high, and for the US or the EU to compete successfully, they must adapt fast. But are they prepared?
